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The Sport Journal - ISSN: 1543-9518

Factors Affecting Attendance at Bowl Games During the BCS Era

ISSN: 1543-9518


Abstract

Six independent variables combined in a formula that explains 82.2 percent of the variance in attendance (r2 = .822) in all 271 college football bowl games that have been played in the past 10 years. This is despite the fact that during a recent explosion in new bowl games and the creation of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), attendance to these traditional post-season football exhibitions has varied from 5,494 for the 2004 Silicon Valley Football Classic to 94,392 for the 2001 Rose Bowl. These six variables, out of 11 that were tested, each showed a relationship to attendance that was statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level (p < 0.01). They include the seating capacity of the stadium (Stadium), the average home game attendance of the participating teams (AHAtt), the age of each bowl game (Age), the winning percentages of the participating teams (Wpct.), the travel distance between the representative institutions and the sites of the bowl games (Distance) and the number of days that elapsed between the participating teams’ final regular season or conference championship game and the bowl game itself (Notice). When the researcher studied only the bowls that were at least six years of age (n = 194), where the attendance track record of the individual bowls could be used as an independent variable, a formula of five independent variables that explain 91 percent of the variance (r2d = .910) was developed. All five variables had a relationship with attendance that was statistically significant at the 0.01 alpha level (p < 0.01). The formula included the attendance average of each bowl game over the previous five years (FiveAtt), Stadium, Distance, Wpct and AHAtt.

Introduction

It would be difficult to find a decade in the 106-year history of college football bowl games in which more dramatic changes have occurred in the major college football postseason. The number of bowl games has increased more than 50 percent from 22 in 1998 to 34 in 2008. The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) has dramatically increased revenues for the elite-level bowl games, and payouts for their participants. The growth of conference championship games and other games being played on the first Saturday in December has decreased the amount of notice academic institutions and fans have in finding out which bowl games their teams will be participating.

Attendance has also taken on an added importance because the growth in number of non-BCS bowl games has created a “clutter” of bowl games on television, creating a potential for a saturated market.

While the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) does not have an official national championship event for its Division One Football Bowl Subdivision (D1-FBS), the fact that there has been only one bowl game a year that has had an effect on the national championship (in eight out of the past 10 years) makes new marketing approaches all the more necessary for even more bowl games. Bowls such as the Cotton Bowl, which helped determine the national champion in 1978 and hosted the No. 2-ranked team in 1984; the Holiday Bowl, which hosted the No. 1-ranked team in 1984; and the Citrus Bowl (now the Capital One Bowl), which hosted the United Press International’s (UPI) recognized national champion in 1991; were left out of the BCS when it formed in 1998.

The surge in bowl certification has also led to an increasing number of non-traditional bowl teams participating in bowl games. These teams have little or no track record of bowl attendance and fans that are not accustomed to making postseason bowl travel plans. In some cases, football programs that either did not even exist or play at the NCAA Division 1-A level 10 years before the BCS started have participated in non-BCS bowl games during the BCS era.

These facts all indicate a need to research bowl attendance data. The increase in the number of bowls means that 271 such games have been played during the BCS era, enough to create a valid sample for research purposes.

Review of Literature

Many studies have been conducted regarding spectator attitudes and preferences in sporting events, although most have been based on survey data as opposed to fan behavior. A need to study spectator attitudes and preferences based on behavior instead of surveys arises not only from the practicality of obtaining this data (the NCAA lists attendance figures for all bowl games in a record book stored in a PDF file on its website) but also because a ticket to a sporting event differs from other products and the decision to attend an athletic event or support its participants differs from other types of consumer decisions. These decisions are emotionally-based (Hardy et al, 2003), so depending on the rational mind in a survey and the limited number of responses that can be obtained through survey data creates some disadvantages compared to data based on spectator behavior.

Definition of Terms

Bowl Championship Series (BCS) – A partnership involving the Rose Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame and six collegiate athletic conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 10 and Southeastern) to produce an unofficial national championship game for D1-FBS college football and provide the best possible matchups in four major bowl games.

Bowl Games – Special exhibition, All-Star or championship games played at the end of the regular football season. For the purpose of this study, the term will be used in reference to games played after the regular season by D1-FBS teams. As of the end of the 2007 season, there are 32 such games played each year.

National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) – The largest governing body of intercollegiate athletics in the United States.

NCAA Division One – The most competitive level of athletics in the NCAA, with a varying number of schools that usually exceeds 300.

NCAA Division One Football Bowl Subdivision (D1-FBS) – A body of Division One college football teams that play a season culminating in bowl games for 64 of its members. The membership number varies, but usually exceeds 100.

Methodology

Using bowl game attendance as the dependent variable, the researcher analyzed 11 independent variables that theoretically would have an effect on the number of people who attended a bowl game. For the second formula, the researcher analyzed the same 11 independent variables plus one additional independent variable. The researcher used stepwise linear regression analysis as a research method and Statistical Package of Social Science (SPSS) 16.0 as the instrument.

Selection of Subjects

The researcher collected data from all 271 bowls that took place during the BCS era, from December of 1998 to January of 2008. For the second formula, the researcher used data from only those bowl games that were at least six years old at the time they were played (n = 199).

Variables

Dependent

Attendance : The number of spectators who attended each individual bowl game, as reported in the NCAA Football Record Book (NCAA.com, see Table 1).


Table 1

Bowl Attendance

Bowl

 

 

 

 

Attendance

 

 

 

 


1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

60780

65380

60028

65232

50690

56226

65265

62000

65875

66166

Aloha

46451

40974

24397

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

38028

27902

33505

32412

40975

BCS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

74628

79651

Capital One

63584

62011

66928

59693

66334

64565

70229

57221

60774

69748

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

28562

21689

26482

28237

31470

40168

46554

Chick-fil-A

72876

73315

73614

71827

68330

75125

69332

65620

75406

74413

Cotton

72611

72723

63465

72955

70817

73928

75704

74222

66777

73114

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

25966

25621

30653

25742

40331

32517

Fiesta

80470

71526

75428

74118

77502

73425

73519

76196

73719

70016

Gator

70791

43416

68741

72202

73491

78892

70112

63780

67704

60243

GMAC

N/A

34200

40300

40139

40646

40620

40160

35422

38751

36932

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

31535

29005

39662

26254

43435

30467

Holiday

65354

57118

63278

60548

58717

61102

66222

65416

62395

64020

Houston

N/A

N/A

33899

53480

44687

51068

27235

37286

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

19664

29283

26203

23472

30446

23118

28516

30493

28652

27062

Independence

46862

49873

36974

45627

46096

49625

43000

41332

45054

47043

Insight

36147

35762

41813

40028

40533

42364

45917

43536

48391

48892

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

26717

31455

Las Vegas

21429

28227

29113

30894

30324

25437

29062

40053

44615

40712

Liberty

52192

54866

58302

58968

55207

55989

58355

54894

56103

63816

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

73535

51236

73238

57937

52303

53126

Micron PC.com

44387

31089

28359

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

32206

44863

52911

44164

51872

51826

52552

50616

54113

60624

Music City

41248

59221

47119

46125

39183

55109

66089

40519

68024

68681

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

34111

30467

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

27004

19024

25184

27253

18338

24791

25146

Oahu

46451

40974

24187

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

67919

70461

76835

73640

75971

76739

77912

77773

74470

74111

Outback

66005

54059

65229

66249

65101

65372

62414

65881

65601

65601

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

32023

35258

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

36842

29709

39129

Rose

93872

93731

94392

93781

86848

93849

93468

93986

93852

93923

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

30144

38241

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

26542

30456

10132

20126

5494

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

76503

79280

64407

77688

74269

79342

77349

74458

77781

74383

Sun

46612

48757

49093

47812

48917

49894

51288

50426

48732

49867

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

52210

62097

Source: NCAA N/A (not applicable) means the bowl game did not exist during the indicated season.


Independent

For the whole group (n = 271)

Age of the bowl (Age): The number of times the bowl game has been played, including the year in question (Table 2). In 2006, the BCS stopped rotating its four bowls as being designated championship games and instead added a fifth bowl, the BCS Championship, on Jan. 8 each year to be hosted by one of the four BCS bowl committees. Two such games have been played during the period of this study, but the age of the BCS title game (1 and 2) would not be reflected in attendance. So in these particular games, the age of the host committee’s bowl game is also used as the age of the BCS Championship game. For example, the 2007 BCS title game was the first one of its kind, but since it was hosted by the Fiesta Bowl Committee, it is listed in this study as being the same age as the Fiesta Bowl (35).

Table 2

Age of the Bowls

Current Bowls

Age (in 2007-'08)

Discontinued Bowls

Final Year

Age (in final year)





Rose

106

Aloha

2000-'01

19





Orange

73

Houston

2005-'06

6





Sugar

73

Micron PC.com

2000-'01

10





Cotton

71

Silicon Valley

2004-'-05

5





Sun

71

Oahu

2000-'01

3





Gator

61

Seattle

2002-'03

2





Capital 1

60








Liberty

48








Chick-fil-A

39








Fiesta

36








Indy

31








Holiday

29








Outback

21








Insight

18








Champs Sports

17








Vegas

15








Alamo

14








Human

11








Motor

11








Music

10








GMAC

9








New O

7








Emerald

6








Hawaii

6








Meinecke Car Care

6








Armed

5








Poinsettia

3








BCS Championship*

2 (35 and 73 in the study)








International

2








New Mexico

2








Papajohns .com

2








Texas

2

 

 

 






*For the purpose of this study, the age of each BCS Championship game will be recorded as the same age as the BCS bowl hosting the event.

Average Home Attendance (AHAtt) : The average number of spectators that attended the regular-season home games of the participating teams. The average home attendance for each team is averaged together for this variable (Table 3).

Table 3

Average Home Attendance

Bowl

 

Average Home Attendance (averaged between two participating teams)

 


1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

47643.0

84813.0

55688.0

55383.0

63621.0

75292.0

75840.5

94200.0

79545.0

95562.0

Aloha

45336.0

38311.5

44969.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

32126.5

23594.0

29364.5

32321.5

63136.0

BCS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

97752.5

98864.5

Capital One

81782.5

61890.5

96364.0

108375.5

95091.0

75327.5

80803.0

83356.0

77631.5

100326.0

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

49084.5

60325.5

46012.0

41942.5

64320.5

52425.0

56265.0

Chick-fil-A

64689.0

58061.5

65243.0

69016.0

76478.0

90558.5

73771.5

68445.0

79489.5

82717.0

Cotton

57412.5

67272.5

78927.5

68044.5

84680.0

50690.5

90571.0

65995.0

85053.5

64969.5

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

51317.5

36617.5

34149.5

46571.5

72743.5

46318.5

Fiesta

93702.0

92284.0

56975.5

46700.5

86513.5

75990.0

42856.0

92906.0

57507.0

72629.0

Gator

60641.5

42517.0

65618.5

66101.5

65147.5

51720.5

69693.0

53058.0

54695.0

55867.5

GMAC

N/A

34163.0

30571.5

31976.5

32131.0

32589.5

29299.0

34858.0

22859.0

20309.5

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

35655.5

31299.0

28703.5

21769.0

45575.5

35937.5

Holiday

62051.0

59820.5

63654.5

77765.5

47513.0

58335.0

58421.0

71382.5

70151.5

74009.5

Houston

N/A

N/A

39252.5

55841.5

35099.5

39772.0

44552.0

38979.5

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

18925.0

30684.5

35604.0

50292.5

35955.0

37497.0

50635.5

34770.5

29318.0

43285.5

Independence

44674.0

60746.5

60268.5

63742.0

67509.5

57652.5

28630.0

66615.5

66636.0

71413.5

Insight

55735.5

46736.0

41444.0

44840.0

40431.5

50168.0

58564.5

47170.5

51540.5

38514.0

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

19499.0

28374.0

Las Vegas

15165.8

16350.0

18483.0

22080.2

26235.4

27997.4

28799.0

28966.0

31154.0

33898.2

Liberty

45323.0

26705.5

33633.0

50013.5

29137.0

31889.5

35515.0

31066.5

48770.0

46657.0

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

54330.5

59810.5

47824.0

45895.0

33275.0

35400.0

Micron PC.com

51571.5

45804.0

47050.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

32233.5

46929.5

24725.0

26924.0

31865.9

24823.5

31664.5

25442.0

21800.0

39048.5

Music City

60857.5

57248.5

50019.5

64580.0

51268.5

81844.5

64721.5

54909.0

70161.0

73645.5

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

23743.5

23380.0

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

21434.5

21665.5

28681.0

22074.0

23121.5

17785.0

22705.5

Oahu

58505.0

35576.0

70379.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

66644.0

97115.5

77953.0

64498.5

64300.0

70642.0

84880.5

93791.5

36998.5

56508.5

Outback

77134.5

74794.0

89830.5

93073.0

97880.5

77987.5

87557.0

80495.5

106678.0

92832.5

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

33695.0

28483.5

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

31180.0

26348.5

38605.0

Rose

75568.5

63909.5

67897.0

62468.5

56617.5

94361.0

97059.5

87072.5

100753.0

71174.0

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

46609.5

39716.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

41500.5

58259.0

41144.7

47619.5

24140.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

75897.5

65622.0

71841.5

71843.5

84143.0

87088.0

74100.0

74494.0

86503.5

68130.0

Sun

44040.0

44689.0

72995.5

44611.5

63932.5

50924.5

63095.0

48372.5

48374.0

56007.5

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

43903.0

25486.5


Attendance Per Mile (APM): The Average Home Attendance of each team, divided by the number of miles between the bowl’s host city and the city where each academic institution is located, averaged together. An example is in Figure A.


2007 Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Indiana

Distance from Stillwater, Okla. (home of Oklahoma State University.) to Phoenix, Ariz. (site of the bowl) = 1085.64 miles

Oklahoma State’s Average Home Attendance = 40,024

Oklahoma State’s APM = 40,024/1085.65 = 36.87

Distance from Bloomington, Ind. (home of Indiana University) to Phoenix = 1,747 miles

Indiana’s Average Home Attendance = 37,004

Indiana’s APM = 21.18

2007 Insight Bowl’s APM = (36.87+21.18)/2 = 29.03

Figure A. Example of Attendance Per Mile (APM) Variable.


BCS Status (BCS): The variable that separates BCS bowls from non-BCS bowls, under the hypothesis that a BCS bowl will normally draw higher attendance. The value of “1” is assigned to BCS bowls while “0” is assigned to non-BCS bowls.

Championship Status (CStatus) _ The status of a game as it pertains to the unofficial national championship of D1-FBS football. For this study, the BCS-designated national championship game is given a value of “1” and all other bowl games a value of “0” (Table 4).

Table 4

BCS Bowls

Bowl

Year

Winning Team in Bold, Championship Games in Italics

BCS

2006-'07

Florida

Ohio State

 

 

BCS

2007-'08

LSU

Ohio State



Fiesta

1998-'99

Tennessee

Florida State



Fiesta

1999-'00

Nebraska

Tennessee



Fiesta

2000-'01

Oregon State

Notre Dame



Fiesta

2001-'02

Oregon

Colorado



Fiesta

2002-'03

Ohio State

Miami



Fiesta

2003-'04

Ohio State

Kansas State



Fiesta

2004-'05

Utah

Pittsburgh



Fiesta

2005-'06

Ohio State

Notre Dame



Fiesta

2006-'07

Boise State

Oklahoma



Fiesta

2007-'08

Oklahoma

West Virginia



Orange

1998-'99

Florida

Syracuse



Orange

1999-'00

Michigan

Alabama



Orange

2000-'01

Oklahoma

Florida State



Orange

2001-'02

Florida

Maryland



Orange

2002-'03

USC

Iowa



Orange

2003-'04

Miami

Florida State



Orange

2004-'05

USC

Oklahoma



Orange

2005-'06

Penn State

Florida State



Orange

2006-'07

Louisville

Wake Forest



Orange

2007-'08

Virginia Tech

Kansas



Rose

1998-'99

Wisconsin

UCLA



Rose

1999-'00

Wisconsin

Stanford



Rose

2000-'01

Washington

Purdue



Rose

2001-'02

Miami

Nebraska



Rose

2002-'03

Oklahoma

Washington State



Rose

2003-'04

USC

Michigan



Rose

2004-'05

Texas

Michigan



Rose

2005-'06

Texas

USC



Rose

2006-'07

USC

Michigan



Rose

2007-'08

USC

Illinois



Sugar

1998-'99

Ohio State

Texas A&M



Sugar

1999-'00

Florida State

Virginia Tech



Sugar

2000-'01

Miami

Florida



Sugar

2001-'02

LSU

Illinois



Sugar

2002-'03

Georgia

Florida State



Sugar

2003-'04

LSU

Oklahoma



Sugar

2004-'05

Auburn

Virginia Tech



Sugar

2005-'06

West Virginia

Georgia



Sugar

2006-'07

LSU

Notre Dame



Sugar

2007-'08

Georgia

Hawaii

 

 


Distance (Distance): The number of miles between the bowl’s host city and the city where each participating team is located (Table 5). The travel distance of each team is averaged out for this variable. The distances were found through the internet using Mapquest.com for mainland bowls and Ask.com for the Aloha, O’ahu and Hawaii bowls.

Table 5

Distance

Mean of Two Teams’ Travel Distances in Miles

Bowl

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

982.46

912.34

1,081.26

765.05

1,147.07

1,167.58

921.44

1,177.24

600.90

912.34

Aloha

2,930.00

3,807.00

4,000.50

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

849.07

1,003.34

388.53

774.47

1,205.70

BCS Title Game

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1,982.42

495.28

Capital One

1,117.34

631.92

823.29

901.23

732.99

746.85

975.12

863.40

1,196.24

631.92

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

783.90

985.59

937.58

828.90

1,198.63

952.28

1,264.36

Chick-fil-A

292.31

205.01

263.38

244.75

433.94

169.08

501.81

596.95

243.41

116.10

Cotton

375.48

264.93

669.21

261.56

319.94

401.79

513.02

466.01

671.07

468.80

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2,020.38

2,157.90

1,964.73

1,609.41

1,510.00

1,694.69

Fiesta

1,880.06

1,646.11

1,582.88

1,240.15

2,151.54

1,556.28

1,648.40

1,910.65

1,022.55

1,590.78

Gator

683.30

351.37

489.32

359.76

736.91

741.77

461.25

661.00

552.40

1,005.90

GMAC

N/A

717.02

362.91

794.15

700.53

689.82

649.35

1,068.07

489.05

811.33

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2,105.00

1,949.00

2,181.00

3,654.50

1,459.00

3,848.50

Holiday

989.72

1,415.66

1,141.56

1,280.59

970.32

1,257.22

769.09

1,175.80

952.31

835.25

Houston

N/A

N/A

923.12

179.86

470.37

1,011.63

943.21

626.77

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

1,232.12

940.64

612.92

2,106.12

698.79

1,845.16

1,547.59

1,331.75

1,633.05

1,448.64

Independence

460.90

381.80

309.81

584.59

564.92

445.68

818.13

696.13

414.47

735.66

Insight

1,738.43

1,801.57

1,798.01

1,777.19

1,690.28

1,423.95

1,571.16

1,225.81

1,226.59

1,416.23

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

439.50

502.67

Las Vegas

1,318.14

408.33

668.78

345.28

421.74

766.57

527.43

472.05

647.41

323.58

Liberty

1,003.56

723.58

766.93

997.44

817.06

944.98

1,137.04

1,161.31

588.30

471.04

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

324.03

359.91

504.73

377.72

651.57

437.13

Micron PC.com

406.00

1,151.93

1,293.62

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

349.84

1,010.91

297.73

157.79

385.69

191.29

368.26

466.09

359.43

246.14

Music City

331.14

531.73

416.63

709.39

706.60

462.30

565.14

714.33

287.00

353.53

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

524.47

511.44

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

1,026.25

684.29

477.72

334.72

287.86

330.37

609.61

Oahu

3,012.50

1,270.50

4,658.50

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

883.07

1,086.26

991.30

707.28

2,106.81

240.85

2,119.11

868.32

948.15

1,205.45

Outback

971.59

764.38

756.62

756.62

649.45

701.57

899.16

701.57

887.37

997.65

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

587.35

352.64

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1,924.81

1,675.89

1,730.69

Rose

990.34

1,163.52

1,617.19

2,117.25

1,231.63

1,122.54

1,806.68

695.08

1,122.54

1,004.08

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

1,757.49

1,574.78

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

759.95

1,260.29

1,296.04

245.97

2,267.72

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

676.85

610.31

701.90

438.10

463.21

395.50

599.06

344.90

535.07

2,375.18

Sun

706.00

1,521.90

1,117.54

1,509.80

1,598.51

1,521.90

949.15

1,151.98

1,384.94

1,693.86

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1,172.12

131.63

Source of data: Mapquest.com and ask.com. N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.

Improved Winning Percentage (Impct): The regular season winning percentage (including a conference championship game, when applicable) of each team minus its winning percentage from the previous season (including a bowl game, when applicable). The two scores are averaged for this variable (Figure B). It is designed to measure how a team performed compared to expectation, something that would theoretically affect the enthusiasm of the fans and influence their decision to travel.

Improved Winning Percentage:


Regular Season Winning Percentage - Previous year’s total winning percentage


2007-’08 BCS Championship Game: Ohio State vs. LSU


Ohio State

2007 Regular Season = 11-1 = .917

2006-’07 Season = 12-1 = .923

Improved Winning Percentage = .917-.923 = -.006


LSU

2007 Regular Season = 11-2 = .846

2006-’07 Season = 11-2 = .846

Improved Winning Percentage = .846 - .846 = 0


2007-’08 BCS Championship Improved Winning Percentage:

(-.006+0)/2 = -.003

Figure B. Example of Improved Winning Percentage

Market Strength (Market): A measurement of the support for college football in a participating team’s area based on the number of D1-FBS institutions are located in the same state as the participating team. For example, a team from Texas would have a market strength rating of 10 because there are 10 D1-FBS teams in the state of Texas (Table 6). A team from Oklahoma would have a market strength rating of three for the same reason. Therefore, a bowl game played between the University of Tulsa and Texas A&M would have a market strength rating of 6.5.

Table 6

Market Strength

Market Strength (averaged between the two participating teams)

Bowl

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

3.0

6.5

2.0

6.0

2.0

3.0

5.5

3.0

6.0

6.5

Aloha

2.5

3.0

1.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

6.0

5.0

6.0

3.0

5.0

BCS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

7.5

6.5

Capital One

3.5

6.0

4.5

4.5

3.5

3.0

3.5

2.5

1.5

6.0

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

4.0

26.0

5.0

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.0

Chick-fil-A

2.0

2.5

3.5

4.5

3.0

3.0

7.0

6.0

2.0

4.0

Cotton

6.5

6.0

3.0

2.5

7.5

2.5

7.0

7.0

3.0

1.5

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.5

2.0

2.0

2.5

7.0

2.0

Fiesta

5.5

2.5

3.0

2.5

7.5

5.0

3.0

6.0

2.5

2.5

Gator

3.0

4.5

2.0

4.5

4.5

2.0

4.5

2.5

2.0

6.0

GMAC

N/A

7.5

6.5

3.5

2.0

5.0

6.0

9.0

5.5

5.5

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

7.5

5.5

5.5

4.5

1.5

3.5

Holiday

1.5

2.0

6.0

6.0

2.0

6.0

8.5

2.5

8.5

6.0

Houston

N/A

N/A

7.5

10.0

3.0

6.0

6.5

6.0

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

2.5

2.0

6.0

3.5

2.0

2.5

4.5

1.5

4.5

4.5

Independence

6.5

3.0

6.5

3.0

2.0

1.5

5.0

1.5

3.5

3.5

Insight

1.5

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

4.5

3.0

1.5

5.5

3.5

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

6.5

2.5

Las Vegas

6.0

5.0

2.0

5.0

4.5

2.0

4.0

5.0

2.5

5.0

Liberty

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

6.5

3.0

2.5

5.0

6.0

5.0

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.0

2.5

3.0

6.0

1.5

3.0

Micron PC.com

6.0

2.5

3.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

2.0

2.5

5.0

8.0

4.5

5.5

4.5

6.0

4.5

4.5

Music City

3.0

2.5

2.5

1.5

1.5

2.5

2.0

1.5

2.0

4.5

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

4.5

2.0

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

6.5

9.0

7.0

6.5

2.5

7.0

5.5

Oahu

2.5

1.5

2.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

5.0

4.5

5.0

4.5

4.5

7.0

5.0

5.0

4.0

2.0

Outback

3.0

3.0

5.0

5.0

6.0

4.5

1.5

4.5

3.5

2.5

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

6.0

5.0

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2.5

6.5

2.5

Rose

4.0

4.0

3.0

7.0

2.5

6.0

7.5

8.5

6.0

5.0

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

4.5

3.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

5.0

6.0

4.5

7.0

3.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

9.0

4.5

7.0

4.0

4.5

4.0

3.0

2.0

4.5

1.5

Sun

8.5

1.5

4.0

3.0

3.0

1.5

3.0

5.0

1.5

4.5

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.5

10.0

Sources: U.S. Department of Education N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.

Notice (Notice): The number of days between the date of a team’s last regular season or conference championship game and the date of its bowl game. The notice for the two teams is averaged together for this variable. The theory is that the longer notice fans have, the more likely they are to travel to a bowl game (Table 7).

Table 7

Notice

Notice (averaged between the two participating teams)

Bowl

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

31.0

35.0

33.5

35.0

28.0

34.0

35.5

36.0

39.0

39.0

Aloha

31.0

31.5

30.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

20.5

30.0

27.0

28.5

37.5

BCS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

44

44.0

Capital One

33.5

35.0

37.0

31.0

39.0

33.0

39.0

41.0

37.0

42.0

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

22.5

30.0

30.0

24.0

31.0

34.0

34.0

Chick-fil-A

33.0

37.5

34.5

30.0

31.0

37.5

34.0

30.5

35.0

37.0

Cotton

31.0

27.0

33.5

38.5

33.0

38.5

32.0

44.0

37.0

35.0

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

31.0

39.5

33.0

36.5

28.5

30.5

Fiesta

37.0

42.0

40.5

31.0

34.0

34.0

35.0

40.5

33.5

32.0

Gator

33.5

31.5

40.5

31.0

35.5

33.0

39.5

30.0

30.0

41.5

GMAC

N/A

29.0

26.0

22.5

14.5

17.0

27.0

27.0

37.5

39.5

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

24.5

22.5

23.5

25.0

25.5

29.5

Holiday

33.0

39.0

38.0

30.5

31.0

35.0

29.5

36.5

35.0

31.0

Houston

N/A

N/A

36.0

28.0

27.0

31.0

28.5

42.0

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

34.0

40.0

40.0

34.0

38.0

38.5

38.0

36.5

37.0

34.5

Independence

37.5

35.0

37.5

30.5

28.5

32.5

26.0

36.0

36.5

36.5

Insight

32.0

35.0

37.0

35.0

29.5

30.5

33.5

31.5

41.0

41.0

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

43.0

39.5

Las Vegas

24.5

28.0

27.0

31.0

21.5

25.0

26.0

33.0

27.0

21.0

Liberty

30.5

37.5

42.0

30.5

31.0

36.0

30.5

28.5

31.0

32.0

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

28.0

28.0

36.5

31.5

32.5

35.0

Micron PC.com

27.5

40.0

36.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

25.5

30.5

32.0

28.5

22.5

28.0

28.5

27.5

28.5

32.0

Music City

34.5

35.5

34.5

30.5

30.0

39.0

44.5

37.5

34.0

37.0

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

24.5

24.5

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

24.0

17.5

19.0

18.0

24.0

23.5

23.5

Oahu

27.0

31.5

29.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

38.5

35.0

39.0

39.0

40.0

33.0

31.0

38.0

31.0

36.5

Outback

37.5

38.0

44.0

41.5

36.0

36.5

38.5

40.0

41.0

38.0

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

28.0

28.0

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

26.0

21.0

22.5

Rose

34.0

42.0

44.0

37.0

25.0

33.0

39.0

32.5

37.0

38.0

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

26.0

33.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

39.5

30.0

28.5

34.5

40.0

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

34.5

42.0

34.5

32.0

28.5

29.0

30.0

30.0

39.5

34.5

Sun

36.5

41.0

37.5

37.0

38.0

42.5

38.0

34.0

30.5

33.5

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

33.0

34.0

Source of data: Division 1A Historical Scores, jhowell.net. N/A ( not applicable) indicates the game was not played in that particular year.

November Winning Percentage (Novpct): The winning percentage of a team in games played during November or the first week of December (Table 8).

Table 8

November Winning Percentage

November Winning Percentage (averaged between the two participating teams)

Bowl

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

Alamo

0.875

0.333

0.500

0.625

0.425

0.375

0.500

0.583

0.167

0.500

Aloha

0.500

0.666

0.333

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Armed Forces

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.875

0.500

0.625

0.458

0.625

BCS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.000

0.733

Capital One

0.625

0.750

0.666

0.667

0.875

0.675

1.000

0.667

0.800

0.667

Champs Sports

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.875

0.750

0.292

0.583

0.625

0.625

0.533

Chick-fil-A

0.583

0.583

0.833

0.576

0.800

0.875

0.750

0.775

0.833

0.666

Cotton

0.633

0.500

0.875

0.750

0.625

0.625

0.417

0.500

0.708

0.775

Emerald

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.433

0.500

0.833

0.583

0.625

0.625

Fiesta

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

1.000

0.875

0.875

1.000

1.000

0.775

Gator

0.875

0.625

0.583

0.500

0.375

1.000

0.500

0.750

0.600

0.666

GMAC

N/A

0.833

0.500

0.567

0.650

0.750

0.708

0.583

0.775

0.900

Hawaii

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.567

0.550

0.650

0.800

0.650

0.750

Holiday

0.833

0.666

0.833

0.625

0.875

0.750

0.833

0.875

0.417

0.583

Houston

N/A

N/A

0.500

0.333

0.625

0.625

0.708

0.833

N/A

N/A

Humanitarian

1.000

0.750

0.833

0.500

0.625

0.625

0.750

0.708

0.500

0.625

Independence

0.375

0.542

0.576

0.625

0.250

0.650

0.708

0.500

0.125

0.167

Insight

0.667

0.500

0.642

0.708

0.625

0.575

0.500

0.500

0.833

0.458

International

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.583

0.583

Las Vegas

0.875

0.666

0.625

0.750

0.625

0.625

0.333

0.500

0.625

0.625

Liberty

0.875

1.000

0.833

0.775

0.666

1.000

1.000

0.576

0.750

0.833

Meinecke

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.750

0.550

0.708

0.675

0.750

0.500

Micron PC.com

0.708

1.000

0.500

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Motor City

1.000

0.667

0.875

0.750

0.800

0.550

0.708

0.625

0.625

0.300

Music City

0.500

0.333

0.500

0.542

0.833

0.417

0.167

0.500

0.542

0.417

New Mexico

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.467

0.500

New Orleans

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.708

0.917

0.875

0.600

0.500

0.900

0.750

Oahu

0.667

0.708

0.333

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Orange

0.708

1.000

1.000

0.868

1.000

0.675

1.000

0.625

0.800

0.875

Outback

0.583

0.417

0.333

0.708

0.750

0.750

0.500

0.666

0.583

0.733

Papajohns.com

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.750

0.750

Poinsettia

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.542

0.833

0.833

Rose

0.708

1.000

0.750

0.833

0.708

1.000

0.917

1.000

0.750

1.000

Seattle

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.600

0.292

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Silicon Valley

N/A

N/A

0.875

0.700

0.750

0.400

0.750

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sugar

0.708

1.000

0.875

1.000

0.800

0.900

1.000

0.875

0.875

1.000

Sun

0.666

1.000

0.667

0.433

0.708

0.708

0.666

0.583

0.567

0.425

Texas

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.583

0.750


Stadium Size (Stadium): The seating capacity of the stadium when used for football games (Table 9).

Table 9

Stadiums

Bowl

Years

Stadium

Capacity

Alamo

1993-Present

Alamo Dome

65000

Aloha

1982-2000

Aloha Stadium

50000

Armed Forces

2003-Present

Amon G. Carter Stadium

43000

BCS

2006-'07

University of Phoenix Stadium

73000

BCS

2007-'08

Louisiana Superdome

72500

Capital One

1986-Present

Florida Citrus Bowl

65438

Champs Sports

2002-Present

Florida Citrus Bowl

65438

Chick-fil-A

1993-Present

Georgia Dome

71990

Cotton

1938-Present

Cotton Bowl

71252

Emerald

2002-Present

AT&T Park

38437

Fiesta

1971-'06

Sun Devil Stadium

73397

Fiesta

2007-Present

University of Phoenix Stadium

73000

Gator